As noted earlier, these payroll survey figures reflect the incorporation of our annual benchmark revisions. Each year, we anchor our sample-based survey estimates to full universe counts of employment, derived principally from administrative records of the unemployment insurance tax system.
The impact of the revisions in the March 2004 reference month is an upward adjustment of 203,000, or about two-tenths of one percent of the total nonfarm employment level. This percentage adjustment is about average for the past decade. The benchmark process resulted in revisions to all not-seasonally-adjusted data series from April 2003 forward. In addition, with today's release, the seasonally adjusted establishment survey data from January 2000 forward have been revised to incorporate updated seasonal adjustment factors.
Turning now to our survey of households, the unemployment rate declined to 5.2 percent in January from 5.4 percent in December; this change primarily reflects a decline in the rate for men. The labor force participation rate, at 65.8 percent, edged lower over the month.
Household survey data beginning in January 2005 reflect updated population controls. As part of its annual review of intercensal population estimates, the U.S. Census Bureau determined that a very small downward adjustment should be made to the household survey population controls. This adjustment stems from revised estimates of net international migration and updated vital statistics information. The updated controls resulted in a decrease of 8,000 in the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over for December 2004. Official population and labor force estimates for December 2004 and earlier months will not be revised.
A comparison of December 2004 data based on the old and new controls shows that the population adjustments caused small decreases in the labor force (-49,000), employment (-45,000), and unemployment (-4,000). The unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio, however, were essentially unaffected.
To summarize the labor market data for January, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 146,000, with increases occurring in a number of service-providing industries. The unemployment rate, at 5.2 percent, is about 1 percentage point lower than its most recent peak of 6.3 percent in June 2003.
---
If you would like to contact the Economics Guide you can do so by using the Feedback Form.
