When speaking of oil reserves, your readers may not have recognized the flexibility inherent in the reserve definition itself. Typically, oil-producing countries and oil companies report "proven reserves" which are estimated amounts thought reasonably certain to be recoverable from known reservoirs under current economic and operating conditions (my emphasis).
Putting manipulation aside, the amounts that are considered recoverable, and therefore part of proven reserves, depend upon current prices and current technology. However, the technologies improve and rising prices make production in remote areas more feasible.
For example, prior to the 1970's only about 20% of the oil in any known reserve was recoverable using the technology of the day. However, by the 1990's, recovery technologies had improved to the point where over 25% could be recovered. As a result, the world's reserves increased without any new fields being discovered. Recovery technology continues to improve, albeit with decreasing marginal returns.
In addition, geological detection and modeling technology is light-years ahead of where it was in 1970. Whereas the industry used to drill 20 wildcat wells for every discovery, the current technology has made discovery much more certain. As a result, there is no need to drill for oil that cannot be produced at current prices. Why create inventory that you cannot sell? Hence, oil companies wait for better prices, but without a proven discovery well, these structures are not yet included in proven reserves.
I do have to admit a certain bias. I earned my economics degree during the 1970's oil crisis. I clearly remember the prognostications of the gloom-and-doomers for $100/bbl oil by 2000. I am also a former employee of a bankrupt deep-water drilling firm and a bankrupt solar-power producer. They both went belly-up after the oil price collapsed in 1983. I do not feel like becoming a sucker for these gloom and doom stories a second time.
Even though some economic illiterates disagreed with your article, I thought it was great. It also matched what my economics professors told us in 1973. I only wish that then I had listened more closely.
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