Q: I had a questions concerning your article on the economics of the black market and should marijuana be legalized.
Even thought there would indoubtably be an outward shock in the demand for marijuana, do you feel that it would be a short-term or long-term shock given that the drug is so readily available?
I feel that there would be an outward shift in the long-run supply side of the market. Although there would be a short term shock, the drug is very easily attainable today and anybody who feels like trying it can do so with very little trouble.
A:Thank you for your great question!
My gut instinct is that demand would increase in the short-term, as the penalties for being caught with marijuana go down (to zero) and marijuana should be easier to attain (though as you state, in many places this isn't much of an issue) ; both of these factors suggest that in the short-term, demand should rise.
It's much harder to say what will happen in the long-run. I suspect that marijuana is appealing to some people precisely because it is illegal; humans have been tempted by the "forbidden fruit" since the time of Adam and Eve. It's possible that once marijuana has been legal for a period of time, it will no longer be seen as "cool" and demand will drop off.
That's my gut instinct on what would happen to demand under marijuana legalization. Gut instincts, however, are no replacement for serious study and evidence. Since I have not studied the subject in any great detail, the prudent thing to do would be to see what those who have studied it say. Follows is a sampling from a few different organizations.
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency believes that demand for marijuana would skyrocket if legalized:
Legalization proponents claim, absurdly, that making illegal drugs legal would not cause more of these substances to be consumed, nor would addiction increase. They claim that many people can use drugs in moderation and that many would choose not to use drugs, just as many abstain from alcohol and tobacco now. Yet how much misery can already be attributed to alcoholism and smoking? Is the answer to just add more misery and addiction?
From 1984 to 1996, the Dutch liberalized the use of cannabis. Surveys reveal that lifetime prevalence of cannabis in Holland increased consistently and sharply. For the age group 18-20, the increase is from 15 percent in 1984 to 44 percent in 1996.
If the price decline under legalization is minimal, then expenditure will not change regardless of the demand elasticity. If the price decline is noticeable but the demand elasticity is greater than or equal to 1.0 in absolute value, then expenditure will remain constant or increase. If the price decline is noticeable and the demand elasticity is less than one, then expenditure will decline. Since the decline in price is unlikely to exceed 50% and the demand elasticity is likely at least -0.5, the plausible decline in expenditure is approximately 25%. Given the estimate of $10.5 billion in expenditure on marijuana under current prohibition, this implies expenditure under legalization of about $7.9 billion.
Legalization of cannabis would also divert demand from other drugs, resulting in further savings. If legalization reduced current narcotics enforcement costs by one-third to one-fourth, it might save $6 - $9 billion per year.
I obviously do agree that legalization would likely increase drug use if it lowered prices of drugs- the quantity demanded of drugs also tends to decline as their price falls. That is why I did not assume a zero price elasticity, but used 1/2 as my estimate. However, whether legalization would increase quantity demanded at a given price is far less clear. Forces go in both directions, such as the desire to obey the law versus the desire to oppose authority.