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Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation

September 2004 - Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation

From U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, for About.com

In September, job gains occurred in a few service-providing industries. Employment in professional and technical services rose by 24,000. Since August 2003, this industry has added 205,000 jobs. Temporary help employment was up by 33,000 in September. Employment in real estate and rental and leasing services grew by 15,000, following an increase of 11,000 in August. Utilities added 2,000 jobs over the month.

Within health care services, employment in doctors’ offices rose by 8,000 in September. Other health care industries, however, showed little or no employment growth over the month.

Telecommunications employment fell by 9,000 in September. Since March 2001, the telecommunications industry has shed 302,000 jobs.

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing employment edged down in September, reflecting small but widespread declines among component industries. Employment was little changed over the month in both construction and mining.

Average hourly earnings rose by 3 cents over the month and have increased by 2.4 percent over the year. Average hours for private production or nonsupervisory workers were unchanged in September. Manufacturing hours declined by one-tenth of an hour. Factory overtime was unchanged.

Turning now to measures from our survey of households, the unemployment rate held at 5.4 percent in September. This is down from its most recent high of 6.3 percent in June 2003; most of this decline occurred in the second half of last year. The labor force participation rate was 65.9 percent in September; it has been at or near this level since late last year. Most other household survey measures showed little or no change over the month.

Before closing, I would like to mention the upcoming benchmark revision to the payroll survey. Each fall, we announce the preliminary estimate of the next benchmark revision to payroll employment. The benchmark revision is a standard annual procedure that adjusts the payroll survey’s sample-based employment estimates to incorporate universe employment counts derived largely from unemployment insurance tax reports.

Preliminary tabulations of first quarter 2004 employment from state unemployment insurance tax reports indicate that the estimate of total nonfarm payroll employment will require an upward revision of approximately 236,000, or two-tenths of one percent, for the March 2004 reference month. This is slightly below the historical average for benchmark revisions over the past decade, which has been plus or minus three-tenths of one percent.

In summary, payroll employment continued to trend up in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.4 percent.

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