Although it could be argued that in an effort to get re-elected, a president has more at stake in his first term and thus will do whatever possible to keep unemployment numbers low and GDP high, it would be interesting to see if there is a re-election "line of demarcation" throughout history.
Mike, I enjoy reading your articles. Although I don't always agree with them, they certainly make me think. Keep up the good work.
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It is often said that statistics can be used to show whatever point of view that you might hold. Likewise, people can be polled using questions that will deliver a very specific answer, or the selection of the people polled can sway the outcome substantially. This can be seen in the recent polls of PEW and GALLUP. One has President Bush leading Senator Kerry by only a few points, while the other has a nearly 20% gap between them. Clearly they can't both be correct, and probably neither one is correct.
As an attorney that does a lot of Bankruptcy work and a substantial Real Estate practice, I can tell you that the worry over the economy is not just on paper. People are hurting and every rise of a penny in the price of gasoline, or every extra dime that they have to spend on their mortgage pushes them closer and closer to the edge.
Medical care expenses and the higher costs of borrowing will continue to be a major source of concern to the voting public. And, the longer and more expensive the Iraqi campaign, the more it is going to impact the electorate. It is very hard to justify spending millions of dollars building a health care system in the Iraqi desert while the people back home have to decide between taking their medication or eating three meals a day.
I believe that once the voters get behind the curtain on election day, the only poll that is going to matter is the one that counts the votes and I suspect that Mr. Bush will not will re-election absent a drastic turnaround between now and November 2nd.
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