Once you've selected Data Analysis from the Tools menu you'll see a menu of choices such as "Covariance" and "F-Test Two-Sample for Variances". On that menu select Regression. The items are in alphabetical order, so they shouldn't be too hard to find. Once there, you'll see a form that looks like this. Now we need to fill this form in.
The first field we'll need to fill in is the Input Y Range. This is our unemployment rate data in cells G24-G242. You can choose these cells by typing "$G$24:$G$242" into the little white box next to Input Y Range or by clicking on the icon next to that white box then selecting those cells with your mouse.
The second field we'll need to fill in is the Input X Range. This is our % change in GDP data in cells E24-E242. You can choose these cells by typing "$E$24:$E$242" into the little white box next to Input X Range or by clicking on the icon next to that white box then selecting those cells with your mouse.
Lastly we'll have to name the page our regression results will go on. Make sure you have New Worksheet Ply selected, and in the white field beside it type in a name like "Regression". Now we're done, and your form should like this. When that's completed, click on OK.
You should now see a tab on the bottom of your screen called Regression (or whatever you named it) and some regression results. Your regression results should look like this. I've x'ed out the actual results (you'll have to do your own work!), but if you've got the intercept coefficient between 0 and 1, and the x variable coefficient between 0 and -1, you've probably done it correctly. Now you've got all the results you need for analysis, including R Square, coefficients, standard errors, etc.
We were looking to estimate our intercept coefficient b1 and our X coefficient b2. Our intercept coefficient b1 is located in the row named Intercept and in the column named Coefficient. On my sheet it has the value "AAA" and the associated standard error "CCC" (see here). Our slope coefficient b2 is located in the row named X Variable 1 and in the column named Coefficient. On my sheet it has the value "BBB" and the associated standard error "DDD". Make sure you jot these figures down (or print them out) as you will need them for analysis.
Now you've got the regression results you need, you'll need to analyze them for your term paper. You can see how to do so in the follow-up article: Hypothesis Testing Using One-Sample t-Tests.
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