It is almost certain that even the non-invasive measures adopted in the 1970's will not keep China's fertility rate at its current low, but additional birth control measures can and have been adopted that still give people the freedom of reproductive choice that is so important in other regions of the world. China's bonuses of monetary and educational advantages for parents with only one child were very effective in limiting its birth rate, but were incentives instead of coercive measures. "Market-oriented post-Mao policymakers have often supplemented persuasion with economic incentives and disincentives" (Winckler, 395). China's present birth-planning policies rely heavily on such economic incentives, and future population control programs will be able to use them just as effectively. Widespread free contraception is also a vital element for any future birth planning policies. The recent 2001 Birth-Planning Law is an excellent example of a policy that provides many comprehensive methods of birth control, but is far less threatening than previous policies. This Law "does not explicitly mention sterilization or abortion. Sterilization is implicitly included as a voluntary option under long-term contraceptive measures...includes IUDs and subdermal implants as alternatives...abortion is implicitly included as a last resort...after contraception has failed" (395). The 2001 Law represents what could be one stage in the gradual softening of China's birth control policies, which would give China a better reputation in international fields without the cost of much population increase. Eventually, it may be possible for China to create a birth-planning policy that will limit the population as much as is necessary for the Chinese economy without resorting to any coercive measures.
The future effectiveness of the 2001 law and the features on subsequent policies will decide once and for all whether China can effectively control its population without taking all reproductive power out of its people's hands. Currently, the country's new birth planning measures do not feature coerced abortions or sterilization, and if it is possible for China to permanently eliminate policy features such as coercive reproduction control, it will attempt to do so, both for the well-being of Chinese citizens and to avoid the harmful international controversy these policies have caused. However, if it proves impossible for China to control its population without such strict measures, it will likely reinstate them. No developing or developed country can afford to have severe overpopulation for long in the modern world economic system, and it is unlikely that China would have achieved such great economic success if it had been unable to bring its population problem into line.
Be Sure to Continue to Page 5 of "The Economics of Chinese Birth Planning ".
