This dramatic change in population occurred long before China's stricter birth control measures were instated in the 1990s. Instead, "the approach to lower birth rates was embodied in the flexible wan, xi, shao campaign" (Yuan Tien et all, 8). Although the strictest SDI measures implemented in the 1990s reduced the birth rate further, "The Chinese birth rate had already fallen to its lowest recorded level by the time these stringent goals were adopted" (Yuan Tien et all, 10).
It is entirely possible that China could keep its birth rate at a comparable level without the forced abortion/ sterilization policies that severely cut the human rights of its citizens and caused it so much trouble internationally. It is also likely that, had China relied on measures like Government propaganda, the free distribution of contraceptives, and economic incentives for having only one child, these less inhumane policies could have covered most of the distance of reducing the population to its current level. These less aggressive tactics are China's primary method of population control today, and continue to be effective.
A total absence of government intervention, however, would leave Chinese parents with no pressures dictating how many children they should have except those of tradition, which has urged parents to have as many children as possible since before Confucius, who believed that "Many children means much happiness: early children means early happiness" (Common saying attributed to Confucius). Without the government to serve as a contrasting voice in society, China's birth rate would probably spike. Economic factors would not be enough to keep families small. In the 1960's before the government's SDI policies, China's fertility rate was at its highest (Smil, 20), even though the country had already industrialized and urbanized to the extent that very large families were often economic burdens, instead of assets. Even in the cities it was very common for parents to have six or more children (Smil and interviews with Nanjing residents), despite the fact small numbers of children are economically preferable in an industrialized urban environment. If the government were to take no stance on population control, as countries like the U.S. have done, China's population problem would undoubtedly rise to its previous levels again.
Be Sure to Continue to Page 4 of "The Economics of Chinese Birth Planning ".
