SO DOES THIS MEAN THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE SPENDING MORE MONEY ON FUEL CELL RESEARCH?
Not necessarily. There already exists plenty of alternatives to the standard internal combustion engine. With gasoline less than $2.00 a gallon in most areas of the United States, electric cars are not very popular. If the price were significantly higher, say $4.00 or $6.00, I'd expect to see quite a few electric cars on the road. Hybrid cars, while not a strict alternative to the internal combustion engine, would reduce the demand for gasoline as these vehicles can get twice the mileage of many comparable cars. Advances in these technologies, making electric and hybrid cars cheaper to produce and more useful, may make fuel cell technology unnecessary. Keep in mind that as the price of gasoline rises, the car manufacturers will have an incentive to develop cars which run on less expensive alternative fuels in order to win the business of consumers fed up with high gas prices. An expensive government program in alternative fuels and fuel cells seems unnecessary.WON'T THERE BE A COST TO THE ECONOMY? WON'T WE SEE A RETURN TO THE PROBLEMS OF THE 1970'S?
When a useful commodity, such as gasoline, becomes scarce, there is always a cost to the economy, just as there would be a benefit to the economy if we discovered a limitless form of energy. This is because the value of the economy is roughly measured by the value of the goods and services it produces. Remember that barring any unforeseen tragedy or deliberate measure to limit the supply of oil, the supply will not drop suddenly, meaning that the price will not rise suddenly.The 1970's were much different because we saw a sudden and significant drop in the amount of oil on the world market due to a cartel of oil producing nations deliberately cutting back on production in order to raise the world price. This is quite a bit different than a slow natural decline in the supply of oil due to depletion. So unlike the 1970's, we should not expect to see large lines at the pump and large overnight price increases. This is assuming that the government does not try to "fix" the problem of a declining oil supply by rationing. Given what the 1970's taught us, this would be very unlikely.
In conclusion, if markets are allowed to function freely the supply of oil will never run out, in a physical sense, though it's quite likely that in the future gasoline will become a niche commodity. Changes in consumer patterns and the emergence of new technology driven by increases in the price of oil will prevent the oil supply from ever physically running out. While predicting doomsday scenarios may be a good way to get people to know your name, they are a very poor predictor of what is likely to happen in the future.
Did you see something in this article that you particularly agreed or disagreed with? If you'd like to leave feedback about this article, please use the feedback form.
