Real GNP Growth
Clinton's 2nd Term: 4.20%
2001: 0.5%
2002: 2.2%
2003: 3.1%
2004: 4.2% (First quarter)
37 Months Under Bush: 2.10%
Last 15 Months: 3.32%
and secondly, the average unemployment rate:
The Unemployment Rate
Clinton's 2nd Term: 4.40%
2001: 4.76%
2002: 5.78%
2003: 6.00%
2004: 5.63% (First quarter)
37 Months Under Bush: 5.51%
Last 15 Months: 5.92%
We see that both real GNP growth and the unemployment rate have been worse under the Bush administration than they were under Clinton in his second term as President. As we can see from our real GNP growth statistics, the growth rate of real GNP has been rising steadily since the recession at the beginning of decade, whereas the unemployment rate is continuing to get worse. By looking at these trends, we can compare this administration's performance on jobs and the economy to the six we have already seen:
- Lower Economic Growth than the Previous Administration: This occured in two cases where the incumbent won (Eisenhower, Reagan) and two cases where the incumbent lost (Ford, Bush)
- Economy Improved In the Last Two Years: This occured in two of the cases where the incumbent won (Eisenhower, Reagan) and none of the cases where the incumbent lost.
- Higher Unemployment Rate than the Previous Administration: This occured in two of the cases where the incumbent won (Reagan, Clinton) and one case where the incumbent lost (Ford)
- Higher Unemployment Rate in the Last Two Years: This occured in none of the cases where the incumbent won. In the case of the Eisenhower and Reagan first term administrations, there was almost no difference in the two-year and full-term unemployment rates, so we must be careful not to read too much into this. This did, however, occur in one case where the incumbent lost (Ford).
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