- 1956: Eisenhower 57.4%, Stevenson 42.0%
Real GNP growth (Economy):
Two Year: 4.54%
Four Year: 3.25%
Previous Administration: 4.95%Unemployment Rate (Jobs):
Two Year: 4.25%
Four Year: 4.25%
Previous Administration: 4.36%Although Eisenhower won in a landslide, the Economy had actually performed better under the Truman administration than it did during Eisenhower's first term. Real GNP, however, grew at an amazing 7.14% per year in 1955, which certainly helped Eisenhower get reelected.
- 1984: Reagan 58.8%, Mondale 40.6%
Real GNP growth (Economy):
Two Year: 5.85%
Four Year: 3.07%
Previous Administration: 3.28%Unemployment Rate (Jobs):
Two Year: 8.55%
Four Year: 8.58%
Previous Administration: 6.56%Reagan won in a landslide, which certainly had nothing to do with the unemployment statistics. The economy came out of recession just in time for Reagan's reelection bid, as real GNP grew a robust 7.19% in Reagan's final year of his first term.
- 1996: Clinton 49.2%, Dole 40.7%
Real GNP growth (Economy):
Two Year: 3.10%
Four Year: 3.22%
Previous Administration: 2.14%Unemployment Rate (Jobs):
Two Year: 5.99%
Four Year: 6.32%
Previous Administration: 5.60%Not quite a landslide, we see quite a different pattern than the other two incumbent victories. Here we see fairly consistent economic growth during Clinton's first term as President, but a consistently improving unemployment rate. It would appear that the economy grew first, then the rate of unemployment decreased, which we would expect since the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.
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Incumbent 55.1%, Challenger 41.1%
Real GNP growth (Economy):
Two Year: 4.50%
Four Year: 3.18%
Previous Administration: 3.46%
Unemployment Rate (Jobs):
Two Year: 6.26%
Four Year: 6.39%
Previous Administration: 5.51%
We'll see if this pattern holds true for the three elections where the incumbent lost.
Be sure to continue to Page 3 of "Presidential Elections and the Economy".
