The 2003 Major League Baseball All-Star Game was expected to be a match between two equally capable teams. Before the game begin, the price of the American League contract had been hovering around 50 cents, so the market believed that the American League seemed equally as likely to win the game as the National League team. When the game began, the price was still around 50 cents, as investors had not learned any information which would cause them to change their beliefs about the outcome of the game. After an uneventful inning and a half, the American League started to make some noise. With two out in the inning, American Leaguer Edgar Martinez was hit by a pitch, then teammate Hideki Matsui hit a single, putting 2 men on base for Troy Glaus. Although there were two out, it looked like the American side had a chance to score some runs, which would obviously improve their chances of winning the game. During the inning the price of the American League contract rose from 48 cents to 55 cents as investors felt that having 2 men on base and 2 outs in a tie game in the 2nd inning raised the American League's chances to win to 55%. Glaus struck out swinging and the price of the contingent contract fell almost immediately to 50 cents. A piece of new information (the Glaus strikeout) caused the price of the contingent contract to fall 10%, despite the fact that the game was nowhere near completion.
The National League side was unable to do much against American league pitcher Roger Clemens, but a single by Ichiro Suzuki, a wild pitch by National League pitcher Randy Wolf, and a single by Carlos Delgado put the American League up 1-0 and the price of the contingent contract up to around 65 cents. With Delgado on first and 2 outs, Alex Rodriguez grounded out to third base, and the price of the contingent contract slid to 60 cents.
Everything fell apart for the American League during the 5th inning. The first National League batter of the inning got to first base on a walk, and the second, Todd Helton, made the score 2-0 on a homerun. After the third batter of the inning, Scott Rolen, hit a single, the price of the contingent contract was down to 33 cents. The next two batters for the National League got out sending the price up to 38 cents, but a double by Andrew Jones and a single by Albert Pujols sent the score to 5-1 and the price to around 16 cents. The price did not seem to recover any after Barry Bonds struck out.
By the bottom of the 6th inning, the market believed that the American Leauge only had a 10% chance of winning. A two run homerun by Garret Anderson caused the price to double to twenty cents, but the price hike was short lived as a 7th inning homerun by Andruw Jones for the National League sent the price back down to 10 cents. Although the score was only 6-3, Fox, the network carrying the game, said that the American league did not stand much of a chance of winning since the National League's closers were unbeatable. Even a homerun by Jason Giambi sending the score to 6-4 only moved up the contingent contract price to 15 cents.
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