A Second Stimulus? Doesn't There First Need to Be an Initial Stimulus?
Thursday July 9, 2009
The Wall Street Journal on the possibility of a second round of stimulus spending:
Why are we even discussing a second stimulus package when the first stimulus package has barely been implemented?
Any economist who thought about the problem for even two seconds would realize how unlikely it is that the stimulus would be spent in a timely manner. Fortunately back in mid-to-late 2008 I spent some time thinking about the problem - see: What Are The Key Ingredients of Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Stimulus - Unlikely To Work in the Real World.
Most economists believe the U.S. doesn't need another round of stimulus now despite expectations of continued severe job losses.How much of the first stimulus package has been spent? According to NBC very little as of the end of June:
Just eight of 51 economists in The Wall Street Journal's latest forecasting survey said more stimulus is necessary, suggesting an average of about $600 billion in additional spending. On average, the economists forecast an unemployment rate of at least 10% through next June, with a decline to 9.5% by December 2010.
According to our calculations, roughly $53 billion or one-third of the $150 billion in fiscal stimulus money available for this year has been spent as of June 19. As a percentage of the $479 billion in total stimulus funds, that represents only 11.1 percent.In Canada the situation is worse - government spending actually fell between March 2008 and March 2009!
Why are we even discussing a second stimulus package when the first stimulus package has barely been implemented?
Any economist who thought about the problem for even two seconds would realize how unlikely it is that the stimulus would be spent in a timely manner. Fortunately back in mid-to-late 2008 I spent some time thinking about the problem - see: What Are The Key Ingredients of Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Stimulus - Unlikely To Work in the Real World.


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