Canadian Economy Predictions For 2009

Nick Rowe of Worthwhile Canadian Initiative is running a Canadian Economic Forecasts 2009 Contest. The rules:

Rules:
Unconditional point-forecasts only, for these 5 macroeconomic variables (you can do others as well if you like).
Only those who have made a forecast will be allowed to laugh at others' forecasts in January 2010.
No prize for the best forecast (other than bragging rights).
"Best" forecast is defined as that which minimises the following loss function:
Loss = sum of absolute value of [(forecast-actual)/latest available end of 2008 actual].

I have said it time and time again - the quickest way to look foolish is to make predictions such as these. But I am going to disregard my own implicit advice and give it a shot. Here are my completely unscientific picks:

CPI, November 2009, year over year: +0.8%
Unemployment, November 2009: 7.8%
US/Can exchange rate, December 31 2009: US$ 0.78
Bank of Canada overnight rate target, December 31 2009: 0.5%
TSX, December 31 2009: 9,400

For the overnight rate target I believe 0.25% is the most likely outcome. But there is a non-zero chance that we see a fair bit of inflation, causing the BoC to have the rate much higher than this. The distribution of possible outcomes is fairly skewed, so the mean, median and mode may deviate a great deal from each other.

Those are my guesses (emphasis on guesses). How about yours?