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This month (November 2008), the two most common questions I have been asked are, in order:
  1. Is the U.S. in a depression?
  2. Will the U.S. go into a depression in 2009?
I give my thoughts in Will the U.S. Go Into Depression in 2009? I would love to hear yours - please leave a comment.

Comments

November 14, 2008 at 9:21 pm
(1) jeremiah says:

Clearly you are not seeing the big picture. we are heading towards more than just a depression, we are heading for an economic collapse. Millions more will be unemployed before this year is out.

Since October of 2008 1000+ companies in the US, have layed off at least 1000 people per. Yet, our government is claiming that unemployment is only at 6%?

Perhaps you should stop looking at the number they give you, and do the research yourself.

http://www.jwtinside.com/hrlive/layoffs.php

November 16, 2008 at 3:19 am
(2) Larry Memmott says:

Didn’t you misinterpret the Goldman Sachs estimates? GS estimates that “The economy will shrink at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 2 percent pace in the first quarter of 2009.” You add them together to get “a 6 month contraction of 5.5 percent.” However, these are estimates of “annual rates,” not of absolute rates for the period. Thanks for the blog. Lots of good stuff.

November 18, 2008 at 2:07 am
(3) Valerie says:

I have to put this info in quotes, taken from the web!!! PLEASE PASS ALONG!!
“The Supreme Court of Canada granted leave yesterdayto hear two appeals from the Quebec Court of Appeal involving the decision of Wal-Mart to close a store in Saguenay, Que. several years ago after the union was certified to represent the workers. Nearly 200 employees lost their jobs. A good summary of the events is set out in this piecefrom Business Week.

The main facts for the purpose of the law cases are: (1) the union was certified by a statutory card-check in Sept. 2004; (2) the parties began bargaining, but bargaining stalled; (3) the union applied for first contract arbitration under the Quebec labour legislation, and on Feb. 9, 2005, the Ministry of Labour appointed the arbitrator; (4) that same day, Wal-mart announced it was permanently closing the store and terminating all of the employees; (5) in late April, 2005, all of the employees were dismissed and the store was closed.

There are two cases moving onto the Supreme Court: Gaétan Plourde v. Wal-Mart Canada and Johanne Desbiens, Ingrid Ratté and Claudine Beaumont v. Wal-Mart Canada . The facts of the cases are summarized briefly in the SCC’s leave application notes. The litigation began at Quebec’s labour board. In both cases, the dismissed employees argued that the store closure and the dismissals were in response to unionization, and that this violated the employees’ rights under s. 15 of the Code, which prohibits a dismissal in response to the lawful exercise of union activities. They relied on a reverse onus provision in the Code, which provides as follows:

17. If it is shown to the satisfaction of the Commission that the employee exercised a right arising from this Code, there is a simple presumption in his favour that the sanction was imposed on him or the action was taken against him because he exercised such right, and the burden of proof is upon the employer that he resorted to the sanction or action against the employee for good and sufficient reason.

Therefore, a key issue in the cases is whether a permanent closure is “a good and sufficient reason” for the dismissals. If it is, then Wal-mart will have successfuly rebutted the presumption.

The Supreme Court has agreed in an earlier case called I.A.T.S.E., Stage Local 56 v.Société de la Place des Arts de Montréal, [2004] 1 S.C.R. 43 with a ruling that found that Quebec labour law does not prohibit the closure of a business, even if the reason for the closure is based on “socially reprehensible considerations”:

In our free enterprise system, there is no legislation to oblige an employer to remain in business and to regulate his subjective reasons in this respect . . . . If an employer, for whatever reason, decides as a result to actually close up shop, the dismissals which follow are the result of ceasing operations, which is a valid economic reason not to hire personnel, even if the cessation is based on socially reprehensible considerations. What is prohibited is to dismiss employees engaged in union activities, not to definitively close a business because one does not want to deal with a union or because a union cannot be broken, even if the secondary effect of this is employee dismissal.

So, it came as a bit of surprise that the Quebec labour board found in favour of the employees in one of the two cases (Johanne Desbiens). The employees argued that the earlier decisions had not considered the effect of the Quebec Charter, which in Section 3 protects ‘freedom of association’, and the labour board ruled that in fact Wal-Mart had fact not satisfied it that the store was permanently closed because Wal-Mart had a 20 year lease that remained in effect, notwithstanding that the store had been emptied of its contents.” WALMART IS PENALIZING THEIR EMPLOYEES EVERY WAY THEY CAN. THEY DON’T WANT SECURITY FOR THEIR EMPLOYEES. PEOPLE NEED TO STOP SHOPPING THERE! THEIR PRICES ON GROCERIES ARE NOTT COMPETITIVE OVER ALL!!! WE ALL HAVE A STORE IN OUR AREA THAT HAS THE BEST OVER ALL BARGAINS ON FOOD AS A WHOLE. IT IS NOT WALMART. MANY MANY MANY CORPORATIONS, STORES AND OTHER BUSINESS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR 50 OR MORE YEARS ARE CLOSING B/C OF THIS (RETAIL GIANT) THAT TREATS IT’S EMPLOYESS LIKE s–t!!! NOW THE EMPLOYESS SCHEDULES ARE BEING MADE UP AT THE HOME OFFICE, NOT EVEN BY STORE MANAGERS. IF EMPLOYEES (MANAGERS AND ALL) CAN’T WORK THE HOURS THE STORE “WANTS THEM” THEY MUST EITHER TAKE A DIFFERENT POSITION IN THE STORE FOR LESS MONEY, OR LEAVE. CUT AND DRY!!! THEY HAVE SWEAT SHOPS DOING THEIR WORK AS THEY STATE “THEY KNOW NOTHING ABOUT IT” ALSO HAVE ILLEAGLE ALIENS WORKING THERE AND WHEN CALLED ON IT “ONCE AGAIN, THEY KNOW NOTHING” BOY, IF SAM WALTON WAS HERE. POOR GUY MUST BE ROLLING OVER IN HIS GRAVE TO SEE THE COMPANY HE STARTED WITH SUCH GOOD INTENT GOING TO THE DOGS!!! EVERYONE STOPPP SHOPPING THERE. GO TO TOYS R US FOR GAMES, GO TO YOUR DISCOUNT SUPERMARKET FOR FOOD!!! STOP THIS “MONSTEROUS RETAIL GIANT” STOP STOP STOP THEM – BEFORE THEIR LACK OF INTEGRETY SLOSES DOWN MANY COMPANIES WITH GOOD ETHICE AND BEFORE THEY PUT MANY OTHER WORKERS OUT OF A JOB AND THAT INCLUDES THEIR OWN EMPLOYEES!!!

November 19, 2008 at 5:12 pm
(4) Lou Ann says:

What has not been mentioned is the impact that the “oil shortage”/price hike which began last year has had on this economy. While Fannie and Freddie and all other bundlers of subprime mortgages continued to lend $ for overpriced homes and the Fed rate was already extremely low expectations were out of sync with reality. When the price of oil spiked (due largely to the global perception of an over inflated US $) this was last brick on the wobbly jenga stack that caused the tottering economic tower to collapse. However, I wish someone would address the negative impact that this proposed union card check would have on business/employment as well as the fact that many of these bad mortgages are on second homes or speculation properties. Individual and companies are ultimately responsible for their own good or bad business decisions and should not look to the collective whole to save them.

November 19, 2008 at 11:15 pm
(5) JOHN says:

Read history & use common sense–there is no economic driver to bring us up and destroyed our own economic engine–its physics and econ–were in for very long, bad, tough times thanks to eggregious corporations and our worthless, corrupt government!!

November 20, 2008 at 11:07 pm
(6) Neil Gillespie says:

The stock market has returned to 2003 levels for the Dow and 2002 for the S&P. Home values have plummeted 25 to 50%, leaving many homeowners underwater on their mortgages. Unemployment is rising, nobody is hiring. The fact that people and companies have lost so much wealth will stifle spending, which will further stifle final demand and create a vicious cycle. We are like the cartoon character that has gone off the cliff but his legs are still moving. Dr. Doom, as you call him, is an optimist right now. The auto industry will go into bankruptcy no matter what the TARP funds afford them. You can’t continue to operate with their fixed costs when demand is down over 30%. Too many union restrictions won’t let you close plants supporting cars you shouldn’t be making because they are unprofitable. The whole economy needs restructuring.

Can’t you see that the whole “bubble” is a bubble because it has no substance, only “air” holding it up? Final demand was blown up by debt which shouldn’t have been extended. People thought they could take on debt and have everything NOW. When debt started defaulting it started unraveling, the bubble deflated to exactly where it was when things bottomed last time: 7500 Dow in 2003.

The mental depression that will hit people as they realize their wealth has evaporated and it probably won’t get back up to where it was for maybe 10 years (Note to everyone…. asset values just ratcheted back to 2003 levels)…. people will not spend, and it will further damage the economy to where millions of jobs are lost…. double digit unemployment!!!

And then we have to deal with a $53 billion federal national debt and unfunded fed pension, medicare and social security liabilities problem in the future after that.

Our growth… by the way has been funded 100% by increases in foreign debt investments in the USA… 100%!!!!

Will they still want to buy US securities when the USA continues to run not 100 billion or 200 billion but Trillion dollar deficits year after year???

This can’t continue this way…. we’re headed for a DEPRESSION, not a recession. Hold onto your cash, get OUT of equities. Pay off your house if you can.

November 21, 2008 at 9:55 pm
(7) Dean says:

Your definition of a depression is rather limited. In your definition, if GDP fell 1%, then remained stagnent for 36 quarters, no depression would have occured.

Not a likely scenario, but a depression just the same. GDP is a poor gauge, a better measure in real unemployment and time.

November 21, 2008 at 11:25 pm
(8) Eric says:

It is interesting that you post “hope”, while the liberal media pushes the “Depression” word and “doom & gloom”. First, I am more than just a curious head among the rest, I am a former hedgefund trader (CBOE)and currently in the Private Equity World.

There are going to be very few Industries who will not be hit. Even the “Media” is laying off 10% of staff, from this newspaper, that station.

The fact of the matter is, it will be a Recession to those who keep there jobs and who are not in Debt. It wil be a Depression for all others. Period.

The loss in “Wealth” since the market touched the 7555 area, well lets just say has yet to impact the average joe. HOPE of his/her 401k returning to decent levels is still alive. However, that will fade as we enter the new year.

The failed “Investment Banking System” has left many in shock. The fact that “Investment Banks” are wiped out, well that will bring its hang over in 09 as well.

Auto Industry, that is just starting and regardless of the “Bridge Loans” or rescue money, that industry will shead 200k jobs if not more in one month alone.

Oil prices, while trading near 50, will not stay low into 09. Demand may have pulled back but there are plenty of Geo-Political Factors that could shoot oil back above 90.

The dollar is strong, for now. 09 we may see the Dollar pull back as the “Carry” trade is dumped by the Asian Tigers who are limping along as we speak.

The facts are, a generation of leverage unwinding will not last 2 years, it will last a decade. Japan say its 20 recession/depression, we will see the same.

Funny thing about Economist, I don’t know one who Trades the Markets, or who work’s in the Private Equity/Capital Rasing market.

Hummmmm? But they sure do sound smart.

November 22, 2008 at 8:04 pm
(9) Robert Kelly says:

Gerald Celente from the Trends Research Institute has been the most accurate business analyst and forcaster EVER in this country. It is his belief we are headed for a depression the likes of which the world has never seen and will dwarf the one we had in in thirties.

I talk to several dozen people per week from all over the country in my business, and there’s a severe downturn in most all businesses everywhere, including my own, and we’re just at the beginning.

This time, though, the system has played itself out and can never be resurrected to its former glory. In fact, there’s nothing anybody can do to change things.

Obama’s health care plan or other spending programs could hurry things along, but, for now, it looks like 2012 will be the year we see riots in the streets.

This multicultural zoo is doomed in its present form.

November 25, 2008 at 12:03 am
(10) Gip, FL says:

Empires never last. Just ask Rome.

1983 was the turning point in which true capitalism more like communism started to take our country towards depression or worse.

About 1968, all the Presidents men began to come into DC, we have seen over 40 yrs of the same people in power in Washington, and nothing has changed.

40-50 million out of work by 2010/11, no base what so ever to create work, 2.5 million infrastructure jobs wont be enough, but will help. Providing Illegal labor isnt used.

My and others solutions

November 26, 2008 at 8:04 pm
(11) icetrout says:

So happy to watch this bubble of greed burst :P

November 29, 2008 at 10:57 pm
(12) JAY says:

Every friday at our local winn dixie you can go in late after noon and see mexicans sending money by western union to Mexico I here Mexico is doing well with all the tax free money that is being sent to them. My pay check is taxed and I dont mind paying my share for the freedoms i enjoy but where is it fare for Mexicans to come and enjoy and not pay. I was in the doctors office and a Mexican couple came in with there son his sorce of insurance was Alabama medicade (free insurance) my child has insurance i purchase he could not have his surgury until I paid his co pay of $300.00 and the Mexican kid got it all paid and guess who paid his we did the American tax payer no wonder this country is in such bad shape.

December 3, 2008 at 12:35 pm
(13) KAT says:

I have been in the trucking industry for 8 years and we have had rough winters and hard times but we are watching our neighbor trucking companies go out business. Our local mills cut employees in half. Businesses closing moving oversees. We need our president elect to step into office and do something do not talk about it. We need something done now or there will be so many americans struggling to feed there families, put a roof over there heads. We will start to see an increase in crimes. Crimes of passion for there familes are starving. I pray that our president elect can step into office and say now lets begin a new economy help the people little people, little towns, no jobs. We are fixing to see the devil rise if we dont get someone to hear our prayers!!

December 7, 2008 at 1:41 am
(14) Brenda Bridges says:

I use to laugh at the joke that rich people have 401K’s and stocks for retirement and the poor have the lottery. Living in a state that doesn’t have a lottery, but a lot of casinos gives one hope. My chances of coming into serious money to survive this economic mess rides on throwing the dice. Unless the government makes the right decisions, we will all be throwing the dice to survive.

December 13, 2008 at 5:17 am
(15) Julie says:

The best definitions I’ve seen for recession, depression, and great depression are John Williams’.

They can be found here: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292

Of course we’re heading for a depression – we’re already in a mild one. Anyone who really thinks that unemployment is not already in the double-digits is misguided.
Clinton re-defined unemployment when he was President. We’re lucky if the real percentage isn’t 16% by now.

It’s disturbing that so many economists are so rigid in their thinking that they fail to look at other indicators of a sick economy . . . like economic inequality. In 1929, the top 1% of American households owned 40% of the nation’s wealth. That led to folks defaulting on their debts while the top 1% engaged in wild speculation and other unsound business practices. By 2005, we reached that level of historic inequality again. We have actually set a new high.

Meanwhile, ALL of our largest banks are insolvent. There is no way to bail to them out. $8.5 TRILLION has already been allocated for bailout purposes. These criminals have hundreds of trillions in bad debt! Our annual GDP is roughly $15 trillion. The entire world’s combined GDP is $60 trillion. See anything wrong with that picture?

We will see Great Depression 2, and it will be far worse than GD1 in its impact. You think Roubini is doom and gloom? Look at Taleb’s interviews:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3zZ6qNWeGw
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/8635

Party like its 1929 people!

December 16, 2008 at 2:28 am
(16) Mary says:

There are many factors no one is mentioning.

Baby boomers are going to cost us 53 trillion in soc.sec. and medicare costs.

Pres. Bush’s prescription program another 18 trillion.

The educated world is growing and Johnnie is blowing dope in the bathroom, and Suzie is pregnant. Many of our kids are living in a dream world. “Our future” are spaced out on video games, ipods, and sucking on a cell phones.

Insurance companies can’t survive all the storms, blizzards, tornadoes, hurricanes, wildfires, droughts and floods.

Avian flu is coming very soon. We are way overdue for a pandemic flu. This one has a 62% morality rate. One in 6 will come down with it, statistically speaking. The impact worldwide will devastate us all.

The Muslims want to convert to the worship of Allah or suffer beheading. Terrorism will escalate once we are weak, whinning and in crisis mode.

Global cooling {due to minimal sunspot activity,increased cloud production, solar cycle 24 is extremely weak}can cause poor crop production. Ug99 is a wheat rot that is devastating Africa and parts of Asia. Colony collapse disorder is killing more than half of our bees, necessary for pollenation. Algore wants us to put corn in our gas tank instead of on our table. {Idiot} This has caused increase prices for corn and wheat, as more farmers plant corn instead of wheat. A famine is coming. Store food now while prices are dirt cheap.

For further details, read your bible.

December 16, 2008 at 2:50 am
(17) mk says:

The current unemployment rate of

January 15, 2009 at 12:29 pm
(18) Paul Long says:

Sure we are going into a depression. It is unavoidable, for our economy, like the car’s we drive, is a 19th century anachronism. The whole thing needs revamping to wring the GREED out of it, and restore TRUST!!!!

Yet we all keep on deluding ourselves

January 15, 2009 at 10:10 pm
(19) Leo J. Belanger says:

What is confusing about our present economic turndown is the issue of prices of durable goods. In the past, when recessions have occurred, the prices of commodities such as food, gasoline, electricity and fuel have decreased in order to offset the reduction in family and consumer incomes experienced by the financial downturn. But to date, except for gas prices, the prices of food, clothing and other necessities are remaining basically the same, and in some cases are increasing.

Major retailers argued over the past year that increases in gasoline prices increased the cost of items. They pointed to the increase of gasoline and transportation as two of the reasons why the prices of food and other items increased. Interestingly, the prices on many food items and products have not been reduced even when gas prices began to decline in the summer months of 2008. While there is a need to allow for time to “catch up” on reducing prices, some major chains have not decreased prices in any substantive way and in some cases have increased the costs for their products.

In my thinking, the supply and demand rule should influence the price of products at some level during a recession. This has not yet occured on any noticable level. It seems as if some retailers are “challenging” the market, waiting to see how consumers will respond before they lower prices. It is my hope that some retailers will realize that we are in a true recession and will see the need to decrease profit margins by reducing the cost of food and other products in order to stimulate buying and to assist in increasing cosumer confidence.

January 16, 2009 at 12:45 am
(20) anthonyu says:

Well, after reading this, I completely understand how we have arrived here. I hope you are paid well for the moranic view, I’d at least like to give to the benefit of a doubt for intelligence.

January 18, 2009 at 1:26 am
(21) Marie says:

The government has said we are going into a deep-recession.mmm those two words together sound more like depression. I have been out of work now for over 10 months and even the staffing agencies are slow. I am hearing reports that for every job, there are anywhere from 300 hundred to 1000 applying! I am surviving thanks to the unemployment extension, but that won’t last forever then what? Where do I find work? Not to mention healthcare. I know I for one cannot afford cobra or health insurance. I am over 55 it is even harder the older you are.
So a word to the wise, fasten your belts, it is going to be a very bumpy ride!

January 29, 2009 at 10:08 pm
(22) Stephanie says:

Let’s set reactionary tendencies aside and be matter-of-fact. Many debates have arisen comparing this economic crisis to the of the Great Depression, and most economists respond with a solid “no”. However, are we truly measuring apples and apples when using unemployment numbers? The Bureau of Labor and Statistics even notes that the formulae used to measure such issues as unemployment have dramatically changed over the years. The calculations are now geometrically weighted and take into account the ridiculous “hedonics” value (Yep, if it feels good we are happy so there’s more value…the feel good factor). If we used 1929 calculations to determine today’s financial hardships, CPI (the same basket of goods then & today), GDP and unemployment, where do the calculations stand? SHall we also discount all the women currently out of work as was the case in 1929? Why will no one compare apples to apples before denying or affirming the economic comparisons between today and with that of the GD?

February 12, 2009 at 4:08 am
(23) Edward Lewis says:

20 years ago I wrote about my economic theory that depressionary periods happen at about 40 year intervals, and predicted both the economic boom and the timing of this depressionary period way back then. The theory is based on the idea that scientific revolutions in physics happen at 80 year intervals. You can see some of this published online.

February 12, 2009 at 5:58 pm
(24) moondogg says:

Yes we are screwed. Is it the end of the world? No. Will many people become homeless? Probably. Appreciate the things that matter, not money, because human history tells us over and over again that money comes and goes, as do wars and virus epidemics. Party-on as much as possible because there could be a new prohibition.

February 16, 2009 at 12:05 am
(25) jocodi says:

First off, the “economic slowdown,” and the banking mess are not magical things that just appeared overnight. They were created. Those that do indeed have eyes that see, and ears that hear, definitely noticed a major downturn ahead at least 2 years ago. I will not go into specific details of the why’s – but it is sufficient to say that whenever greed, corruption, and unfaithfulness are allowed to lead any system – a bad ending is not that far away. This crisis is very much like the baseball steroid deal – many people knew, but little was done because the fans loved the home runs, the money was coming in, etc. – now the baseball world has to deal with a problem that will not go away. The only true fix is for players not to cheat. Will that happen?
The economic world has not been fixed in many years; the corruption is deeply entrenched and the damage has been done. Even if all corruption was eliminated completely at this moment in time, the damage is done. The healing process will take years. I do not see any healing taking place. I see plans/bills of spending being pushed to help keep alive a dead system. I am not a doomsayer, and really wish the best for our country and its citizens. It hurts to see the plights of the jobless. The desperation. As sad as it is, the bottom line is this:
The USA, along with the rest of the world to follow, will enter a major, major depression within the next two – four years. These will be good times compared to what is in store. Every aspect of our economy will crash. The government itself will finally realize it is out of plans and ideas. No one will need to argue about what really constitutes a “depression” – it will surpass every textbook definition and every expert opinion -everyone will know. Unemployment will easily be over 25 percent. I cannot even begin to think, nor want to, of all the implications. Out of this, a “new country” will arise. One that is quite scary to lovers of freedom. “Lovers of freedom” – remember that phrase and find out it’s true meaning.
It was the building block of this country.

February 16, 2009 at 3:07 pm
(26) John Cauthen says:

I’ve read every comment and didn’t find one that had value. In simplistic terms, the problem is the rich aren’t going to be as rich. So what, big deal. The real economy is its ability to produce products that are needed. We have that in spades right now and into the future.

For example, GM going bankrupt? Produce the same number of cars but lower prices. Now GM isn’t making as much money. Can’t pay for the materials to make cars so you aren’t making a profit? Negotiate with suppliers; pay only what it is worth to you. Now the suppliers aren’t making as much money. Bottom line, the rich people won’t be making as much money, but if you stop making cars, then people won’t have cars.

If you lower wages or cut jobs trying to make as much profit as you have, the people who buy cars won’t be able to, and that’s a downward spiral.

The rich just need to accept having less money. Lower prices because the physical production capability and the need is still there. With lower prices and no cuts in wages or jobs, the poor will have more than they have now, relative to the rich, and the balance will be restored, in fact, if we ride the wave by lowering prices and not cutting production, everything will continue to be in balance.

February 23, 2009 at 12:42 pm
(27) George Strong says:

You are already in a DEPRESSION. All the characteristics are present for those who will
look. 31 million on Food Stamps. Millions out of work. Work hard to find even with a degree.
Millions under employed. Bank failures and bailouts. Fiancial institutions being nationalized. Industries and retailers in collapse. Families can afford their homes. China holds 500 billion of Uncle Sam’s debt. The US is 12 Trillion dollars in debt overall. The Stock Market lost over 47% of it’s value since October, 2007. The FED has to prop up the stock market. Nearly every state in the US has major budget problems. California, the world’s 8th largest
economy has defaulted on it’s committments.
Home values every where in free fall. The GDP
is in contraction. The Global economy is faultering. WAKE UP. This is a DEPRESSION.

March 1, 2009 at 7:17 am
(28) Frank Martin says:

Opinions range from doom to hope…
But all the facts reflect only gloom..
Obama, Bush, Democrats Republican Rigt Left..
Politicians have always been known as liars

yet people want to believe its gonna be ok
i want to believe
people in hell want ice water

March 2, 2009 at 5:23 pm
(29) James says:

Closer than you think …
“A 6 month contraction of 5.5 percent is quite severe, but still a long way from a depression.”
Well, numbers are out – US GDP fell 6.2 in 3 months … that leaves 3.8 drop over 9 months before you have an offical depression.

March 6, 2009 at 12:14 pm
(30) brian says:

you have mentioned the millions unemployed, but have failed to recognize that the usa will have 100,000,000 more residents in 50 years approx 2 million more each year. this will increase the unemployed ranks as they leave school and enter the workforce. increasing costs to govt while income plummets is a receipe for diaster. food and energy costs will rise and consumers will stop consuming other products further eroding the workforce. i have only touched on parts of why the usa will enter a depression and maybe worse. as i believe that the problem is multi pronged, and the solution is capitalism and over-consuming is a failed policy.

March 8, 2009 at 6:41 pm
(31) Hux says:

Democracy= best form of government
Add capitalism = not bad- not great
Democracy+Capitalism+ GREED = sure failure
Think of the super powers of history-England France- Russia-Mongolia etc. What made them crash? The GREED of the upper level – so called class leaders. CAN”T WE LEARN LESSONS FROM HISTORY- Please affluent peoples- How much do you reallt have to have.

March 9, 2009 at 1:01 am
(32) John A. Jauregui says:

The depression will last as long as the mass insanity of Global Warming/Climate Change and the resulting misappropriation of scarce national resources to an imaginary problem. “Global Warming/Climate Change” is a government sponsored “red herring proxy” for discussing and dealing with the evolving exigencies of “PeakOil”. The planet has actually entered a secular cooling cycle as evidenced by the extended transition from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 and satellite measurements confirming secular cooling. Google “solar cycle 23 global cooling” and “Rhodes Fairbridge solar inertial theory of climate change” to get a clue. The problem is not “Global Warming/Climate Change”. The problem is “Peak Warming/Peak Oil”. This IS the worst case scenario where declining fuels availability meets declining average annual temperatures around the planet. This winter Russia turned off gas supplies to Western Europe not because of politics and nonpayment, but because they needed to address increased winter heating requirements in areas hit by historically cold weather.

March 11, 2009 at 1:01 pm
(33) Roger Jet says:

Clearly, a depression is measured in many ways. However, there are characteristics.
Probably the most promenient is high unemployment with a major portion of the general population with the inability to sustain itself. Another is major failure of the banking system. Depreciation of assets
like homes. Although GDP is a good indicator
it is not all inclusive. But if you look at the general population of the US they are
definitely in fiancial trouble and loosing gound everyday. The fat cats at the top will
never feel a depression. US families are struggling. Our leaders are numb and blind,
they have an exceptional income. Tent cities
(homeless) have begun to go up across the US.
These people are unemployed and without stability. For them it is a depression. The
local governments do not even want to validate these people. They are not in the unemployment stats.

March 14, 2009 at 11:37 pm
(34) Neil Gillespie says:

Talk to you in a year after the bottom falls out this summer or before.

Gold. Food supplies. Guns and ammunition. A good bike and some spare tires for it. Medical supplies. Great locks on your doors and windows.

March 18, 2009 at 12:08 am
(35) Scott McKenzie says:

I’ve had this terrible feeling of impending doom deep in my gut for some time now. It really feels like that, we, as a nation have completely lost our way and that the people we look to for guidance and direction, really have no clue what the hell they’re doing.

I felt a little better when bush was finally out of office. I remember thinking to myself how nice it was to have a president that was able make it through a complete sentence without f**king it up.

But now I’m more scared than ever!

We can’t continue to stick billion dollar band aids on our problems and hope they’ll just go away.

And we certainly can’t afford to continue to barrow billions from china of all places just so we can give it to greedy unscrupulous corporate ceo’s who will as we have already seen use it to fuel their private jets and fly off laughing to lavish weekend retreats to celebrate our stupidity.

I really don’t know what the answers are, our problems are huge and too numerous to mention but I do think a good start would be to just keep things simple and exercise a little common sense.

April 28, 2009 at 1:44 am
(36) Keisha says:

We are in a depression and its the revalation.repent and stockpile foods tools meds and any supplies you can.the time is here and wallstreet is about to totally bottom out and crash.prepare yourselves and good luck. Watch out for the plaques..like the swine flu.

May 9, 2009 at 11:34 am
(37) anand says:

hi your comments are great. but one thing i never understand that when us market goes up the dollar goes down? why? can u mail me to explain it please?

May 16, 2009 at 2:43 am
(38) Orange3 says:

Things look bad but people are smart and resilant and will make it through. The days of rich CEOs and of our kids
living in a dream world. “Our future” the kids today are spaced out on video games, ipods, and sucking on a cell phones will come to a shrieking halt as people will find new ways to survive in the 21th Century. Finally, people in order to survive will stop living beyond their means and find productive ways to have food shelter and recreation. $50. for movie tickets and food in the theatres will become a thing of the past.

May 20, 2009 at 1:42 pm
(39) kevin joseph says:

the usa is now a dumping ground for the surplus population of the 3rd world!
and its been this way since 1965!
in 1989,,,usa,,,250 million people
2009…310 million?
re:previous post
brian says:
you have mentioned the millions unemployed, but have failed to recognize that the usa will have 100,000,000 more residents in 50 years approx 2 million more each year. this will increase the unemployed ranks as they leave school and enter the workforce. increasing costs to govt while income plummets is a receipe for diaster. food and energy costs will rise and consumers will stop consuming other products further eroding the workforce. i have only touched on parts of why the usa will enter a depression and maybe worse.

May 21, 2009 at 4:57 am
(40) Ron says:

Yes we are going to lay the great depression to rest, We will make The Great Depression look like a minor hiccup in the economy. There are many factors as to why i think and belive we are already in depression,(1) the first step is denial.(2) by the end of june there will be another 200,000 that are not employed(“this is simply an estimate and its the high school students that graduate this year”) the ones that havent ever worked so they arent considered unemployed, weel then what would you call it.(3) Have you looked at a new car lately, probably, I will say this with respect, If you want a car that built and assembled in the USA buy a Honda, If you want a car that used to be MADE HERE buy GM, FORD, or CHRYSLER, its a sad truth when the only cars built and sold here in the US are that of a foreign market.
So with that said i think the US gov’t thats bailing out the American auto industry need to step up and Say Forget the rest of the world for a minute, If we bring the mines back online and the auto industry back home and start feeding the americans cash again we will never get any worse off then “The Great Reccession” which is what i would call this period of limbo.

June 1, 2009 at 11:12 pm
(41) steve says:

You can’t find a pair of shoes made in America unless you want to wear firemen’s boots. Most of your clothes are made overseas. Most of the food in the grocery store is imported. Most of the items at walmart and other stores comes from China. America has moved its manufacturing to cheap labor markets because American consumers refused to pay a little extra to buy products built at home by their countrymen. America no longer takes raw materials from the earth and manufactures things of value. Therefore, American can no longer become more valuable. We will “consume” ourselves into a 3rd world country full of trailer parks, illiteracy, gluttons of instant gratification. Don’t want to travel that path? Buy American. Refuse foreign goods, especially food. You’ll pay more and get less, but you will get products that are made in safe factories using safe processes and chemicals and you’ll employ Americans and keep your money from supporting foreign dictators, communism, child labor, environmental irresponsibility, and a whole hose of other ills. “Protectionism?”, I’d say “Patriotism” and sound trade policy. When you do buy foreign products, and you will, buy from countries that share our values and economic structures such as minimum wage, safe work environments, fair trade policies, and environmental stewardship. Again, be willing to pay more to have an America worth living and “working” in.

June 12, 2009 at 1:20 pm
(42) Jim says:

Wow.I’ve been through more of these things than 95% of you.What I find fascinating during each recession/depression is that the ones who fare most poorly go on and on and on about how much worse it is going to get.Their negativity FEEDS on itself.Me, I just look for the inevitable opportunities—-and come out the far side far wealthier than going in.
Bad times are the times of GREATEST OPPORTUNITY.You can buy assets at 1/8 price because people are so scared.

June 27, 2009 at 1:33 am
(43) Robert Hillman says:

I am fourty two and single
i live in the country and
have a market garden
and my own chickens and ducks
and geese
I wont starve but I am still alone
if your single I am fourty two

you want the truth something far
worse than a depression is coming

JUSTICE is coming
for the years of selfish living
that north america has done
to its own poor
and for the shedding of innocent blood
in other countries
RON PAUL should be president

and

http://www.goodnewsaboutgod.com
is the best site against the NEW WORLD ORDER

wake up

I am still looking for a good woman to marry
Integrity@cyg.net
maybe a nice michigan woman

July 5, 2009 at 12:06 pm
(44) JRL says:

Jim you are correct – you can buy assets @ 1/8 the price. Only one problem – most of America has no money – in fact most have huge debt.

The true unemployment (U-6) is approaching 20% and will soon pass 25%. You can merrily walk into the future buying your 1/8 value assets but in the end you will simply have a lot of stuff no one can buy.

That light you see in the tunnel is the politicians fleeing from the mess they have allowed to happen.

July 16, 2009 at 11:33 am
(45) brian says:

just ask the millions of americans living in the streets if the usa is in a depression.

July 21, 2009 at 10:28 pm
(46) darrell says:

when someone ask all the rich people in the u.s. do you feel like you should help get youre country out of this ression…all but 1 man ‘ben stine’ said ‘no’ it was not thier place to hekp get thier country out of this mess…its called GREED…the rich have took everything the poor has…the poor has no more to give…yes…the u.s. is in very bad shape…

August 10, 2009 at 10:42 pm
(47) C James says:

The leaders of this country really don”t realize how bad things are. You cant borrow your way to prosperity.
The republicans really are a group of losers and the democrats better get their heads out of their buts and start worrying about main street and not the self indulled idiots on wall street.

September 14, 2009 at 12:47 am
(48) Jerry Cariello says:

All I can say is READ “The Great Depression Ahead” by: Harry S. Dent!!!! Awesome Book!!!!! found him in 2002…..changed my whole investment plans cause of him….and yes He has helped me make money!!!
or just read his old books and see he is right 99% of the time…..but I use him as a guidline….He is AWESOME!!!!!

September 25, 2009 at 9:38 pm
(49) Dan the Dancing Machine says:

Aw shucks! Stop complaining and turn the tv back on. That’s it… nice. Go get me a basket of them green shoots to chew on and bring me some of that Mo’ better Bernake sauce to dip them in. Turn that song up louder too! Hum a few bars with me, “Don’t worry, be happy”. Ok, DanDan the Dancing Machine is out!

October 7, 2009 at 6:52 pm
(50) zookie says:

I just googled: GROCERY STORES CLOSING IN NEW YORK. It makes me wonder what we would do here in Florida if our local grocery stores closed. In Detroit some stores closed because “more food was going out the back door than the front.” The stores that remain will take cash and not plastic.
We have a lot of strip mall shops closing and boarding up, mostly Mom and Pop shops who put their life savings into a new life which went belly up due to the economy. I think we don’t know the actual true number of unemployed, but we should know for sure we are in deep trouble folks. As the economist said..invest in bullets and rice.

October 11, 2009 at 10:13 am
(51) Anhtuan Le says:

Yes, the U.S will go into another recession but not until some of the thinktankers within the u.s government have tried all of their ideas to get their economy out of the hole. They are struggling in this fight until the reality of u.s economy is inevitable to fix within a short time span. The u.s people are not united in the front of united one mind to do whatever it takes to make their economy recovered. Black want for black, white want for white, hispanic want for hispanic, asian wanna run away. You all get my point. the behavior of americans need to change, meaning, the acceptance of american getting poor is needed before it can get back to the old day again. Anyways, the main point is this go and figure. Will i get paid for expertise opinion if i offer the solution to get the u.s economy out of the mess? … more and more.. idea.. the jew… the favortism… the holding back of power…. the parential power…. the education system…. the military power.. the corruption within… the sleepwalking.. the brainwashing…the realit__________________________.

November 20, 2009 at 6:41 pm
(52) Lynette Ray says:

If you are employed, it’s a recession. If you are not employed, it’s a depression. The traditional ‘economic’ definition for a ‘depression’ vs. a ‘recession’ is truly irrelevant. Who cares about GDP and the Stock Market? These realities do not put food on the tables of 31% of Americans who don’t have enough to eat.

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