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Mike Moffatt

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By Mike Moffatt, About.com Guide to Economics

Recessions vs. Depressions

Thursday November 13, 2008
In Recession? Depression? What's the difference? I give my thoughts on the differences between a recession and a depression. One reader believes the past provides a poor guide on whether or not the economy is going into a recession:
It seems to me that several factors naming a recession of depression are not easily determined. As an example, unemployment. Who knows how many people simply gave up looking for a new job? Whatever word we use, the current situation does appear to be unique. Our interdependancy is exposed more than ever before. Additionally, this is a time when we could make the same kinds of errors that were made in the 1930s, and cause an already bad situation to be much worse, i.e., raising interest rates to discourage spending. The real escape from depression comes from a solid confrontation of the real problem in any economy. That is, the reason people borrow too much, is because they cannot meet their basic needs with their current income. It is not because most of the people are spendthrifts; especially now with our bankruptsy laws the way they are. Interest rates should be standard and locked. It is only in this way anyone can make an accurate estimate of whether they can repay a loan or not. While we have not lost 30% of our jobs, we have lost 30% of our median incomes. This will cause an extreme recession or depression anytime it happens. The true value of the DJIA is about 7000. Even then we are guessing about the stability of value. My own personal estimation is that value will continue to recede for the next five to ten years. We will end with a necessary universal world currency, and measure economic progress on a global basis and not local basis. There is no doubt, with this scenario, that we are going down a ways, before we start going back up.
Thoughts? No two situations are alike, so in that situation every economic period is 'unique'. But is this downturn significantly different than others we have seen in the past?

Comments

November 13, 2008 at 6:12 pm
(1) Irishgalartist says:

I pray that you are correct. Paulsen changing the rules of the bailout makes me feel uneasy. It seems they are not sure of what will work. I am also curious if an Obama administration will make this worse?

November 16, 2008 at 3:13 am
(2) Kenneth Crook says:

It’s a recession if you still have a job.

It’s a depression if you are unemployed.

Beauty (recession/depression) is in the eye of the job holder.

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