What Shape Will A Recession Take?
Monday November 3, 2008
A fun little blog post by Justin Fox at Time, where he gives five possible trajectories for the economy:
What is your guess?
- The Mulligan W
- The Harris Slanted W
- The Roubini Ladle
- The Great Depression - 2.0 Shovel
- The Stimulus Sawblade
What is your guess?
Comments
The names associated with the various shapes are somewhat pretencious. What is more significant is how long and and at what rate our economy is goung to take to recover, and if before it does so it is going to get any worse?
I claim that we have almost reached the bottom of the curve but that it will take at least 5 years of steady employment and work for our economy to reach the happy state before all of the current troubles became aparent. The basis for this guess is from experience of previous recessions and depressions and a knowledge of their basic cause (land speculation) and of how long this market takes to get past the dip. This is the time to “buy low” if you have any money available, but if your investment has now fallen, it will probably rise again if you can simply hold on.