Economics Nobel Predictions
Thursday October 2, 2008
I am going to use this blog post to aggregate all the various Econ Nobel predictions from around the web. If you find any, please let me know about them by leaving a comment.
Now on to the predictions!
Thomson Reuters:
Wandering Econman discusses an article that suggests an Indian-born economist is likely to win the prize this year with Jagdish Bhagwati, Avinash Dixit and Partha Dasgupta as the top 3. The site also gives a number of non-Indian-born picks:
Gabriel likes Barro and Sargent or Jorgenson. EclectEcon likes Richard Posner. I have not spent nearly enough time with Posner's work to be able to have an informed opinion. From what I saw of the Conrad Black trial I was not particularly impressed with Posner, but my impression was not nearly as negative as Conrad Black's.
My pick? Tirole and Maskin. Making Eric Maskin the first person to win consecutive Econ nobels.
Now on to the predictions!
Thomson Reuters:
Lars Hansen, Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims economics "for their contributions to dynamic econometric models"All fine choices. If you had asked me if Hansen and Sargent had already won the prize I would have to think about it before answering "no". In my mind they seem like a natural fit.
Martin Feldstein "for his research on public economics, including taxation, social security, health economics and many other topics"
Armen Alchian and Harold Demetz "for their publications on property rights and their contributions to the theory of the firm"
Wandering Econman discusses an article that suggests an Indian-born economist is likely to win the prize this year with Jagdish Bhagwati, Avinash Dixit and Partha Dasgupta as the top 3. The site also gives a number of non-Indian-born picks:
Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen, Christopher Pissarides, Elhanan Helpman, Robert Barro, Paul Krugman, Paul Romer, Gene Grossman, Eugene FamaGrossman had never really crossed my mind as a Nobel prize pick, but he's also a fine choice.
Gabriel likes Barro and Sargent or Jorgenson. EclectEcon likes Richard Posner. I have not spent nearly enough time with Posner's work to be able to have an informed opinion. From what I saw of the Conrad Black trial I was not particularly impressed with Posner, but my impression was not nearly as negative as Conrad Black's.
My pick? Tirole and Maskin. Making Eric Maskin the first person to win consecutive Econ nobels.
Comments
Dude, you need to put things into perspective… age is a major factor in this. They still have a large stock of old dudes that are not going to be around much longer so they need to get them first. By that standard, Tirole is young, I think, so he can wait.
Most of these reports speak of families that make 75,000 and up. What does all of this mean for families that make half that much. How about the down and dirty and no beating around the bush! Regular people need to know!
I hope the Nobel Committee will widen its horizon and consider Hyperwage Theory and its inventors for the award.
With sub prime crisis and the financial turmoil,a return of Keynesian economics is going to be a reality.So this year’s Nobel Prize should be awarded to Post-Keynesians like Professors Harcourt,Davidson,Chick or Kregel.