On the other hand... Roubini Bearish on U.S. Economy

Yesterday I linked to an entry by Mark Perry, on why the U.S. might avoid a recession. An excellent counterpoint to his arguements is The Coming US Consumption Slowdown that Will Trigger an Economy-Wide Hard Landing. Roubini writes:

Any recession call for the U.S. is clearly dependent on US consumption faltering. Since residential investment is only 5% of even a worsening housing recession cannot – by itself – trigger an economy-wide recession. Rather, since private consumption is over 70% of aggregate demand a sharp and persistent slowdown in consumption growth – below 1% or even negative - is necessary to trigger a full blown recession.

In this regard, evidence is mounting that a debt-burdened and saving-less US consumer – that until recently used its home as an ATM and borrowed against its housing wealth - is now on the ropes and at its tipping point. Let us consider first the factors that will lead to such a consumption slowdown and then the evidence that such a slowdown is already starting in earnest.

Would I be considered overly indecisive if I felt Perry was too bullish and Roubini too bearish? I believe the most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle. Right now I lean closer to Perry than I do Roubini, but I admit they both make compelling arguments and I could be swayed.

I suppose this is one of the cases where economists, in fact, do not agree on everything.