Mankiw on "Where have all the oil shocks gone?"
Sunday October 28, 2007
Yesterday I discussed my thoughts on why the economy the adjusting so well to the high price of oil:
I suspect it isn't just energy efficiency that is preventing us from entering a recession during this price spike, unlike the 1970s. I would wager that some of it has to do with the fact that we've largely avoid self-defeating, destructive or ineffective policy measures...Today Greg Mankiw gives his two cents:
In their research on the topic, Blanchard and Gali give additional credit to more flexible labor markets, better monetary policy, and a bit of luck.I'll be reading the Blanchard and Gali paper later this afternoon (yes, this is what I do on my weekends!). I would have suspected that the monetary policy of the 1970s didn't make the problem worse so much as prolonged the agony, so I'm quite interested in the Blanchard and Gali results.
Another hypothesis: The macroeconomic effect of high energy prices may depend on whether the high prices are the result of reduced supply or increased demand. Perhaps in the 1970s high oil prices were largely the result of supply restrictions, whereas in recent years high oil prices are more driven by increased demand from a booming world economy.


Comments
Blanchard & Gali is good (and over my head in many places) but with models like this, all-in, I always get the feeling that they could account for any path without being able to discriminate sharply between explanations.
James Hamilton of Econbrowser is an expect on oil & related and he’s been doing some posts on this. I’m not sure how “mainstream” are his views but I remember that he tries to keep his models “neoclassical”.