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Mike's Economics Blog

By Mike Moffatt, About.com Guide to Economics since 2002

How is the Economy Able to Handle Near $100 Oil So Well?

Saturday October 27, 2007
Very interesting post at Carpe Diem with the title The Energy-Efficient Economy Can Handle $100 Oil. The whole thing is worth reading; here are a couple comments I found interesting:
Not long ago, the general consensus would have probably been that $100 oil would certainly cause the economy to go into a recession, and yet we're almost at that point now, and the economy continues on its expansionary path, as Paulson suggests, with output and employment growing at a fairly health pace...

Compared to the early 1980s when the real price of oil was about the same as today, we are now about twice as energy efficient, requiring only about 1/2 of the energy consumption per dollar of real GDP in 2006 (8.75 Btus per dollar of real GDP) as in 1980 (15.13 Btus per dollar of real GDP).

Bottom Line: The energy-efficient economy of today is much better able to absorb higher energy prices than in the past. Although high oil prices crippled the economy in the 1970s and early 1980s, and caused serious recessionary periods, the energy-efficient Energizer Bunny Economy of the 21st Century just keeps humming along.
I suspect it isn't just energy efficiency that is preventing us from entering a recession during this price spike, unlike the 1970s. I would wager that some of it has to do with the fact that we've largely avoid self-defeating, destructive or ineffective policy measures like price controls and wearing buttons to "whip" inflation.

Comments

October 28, 2007 at 11:23 am
(1) nr says:

Another reason: the U.S. contributes smaller share of global growth, so a slowdown in the U.S. can be mitigated by growth elsewhere (e.g., China). Contrary to the xenophobes, growth in China and other developing countries is a source of stimulus for the U.S.

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