I am going to use this blog post to aggregate all the various Econ Nobel predictions from around the web. If you find any, please let me know about them by leaving a comment.

Now on to the predictions!

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I am glad to know I am not the only one who questions how much of a crisis we are in. It is clear politicians are not taking this issue too seriously, given some of the provisions of the bailout bill:

Just don't read the fine print of the 451 page, $700 billion bailout plan because, well, things get a little bit wooly.

Like Section 325 which provides essential tax breaks for the "wool research fund." Seriously.

Section 503 gives tax breaks for the manufacture of wooden arrows used in toys for children...

In Section 316: a tax break for railroad track maintenance. And Section 317, a tax break for race tracks.

If this doesn't confirm the thesis of The Logic of Collective Action nothing will.

I have been getting a lot of questions lately asking whether or not we're going into an economic depression, what should people do during these turbulent times, and what, exactly, is the difference between a recession and a depression. To answer the third question, see: Recession? Depression? What's the difference?

To answer the first question: almost certainly not. The United States may even avoid a recession, but it is tough to tell.

My overall advice: Take a few deep breaths and calm down. And avoid buying stuff you cannot afford. This advice also works for booms and periods of "irrational exuberance". It isn't particularly sexy advice, but it works.

A few thoughts on my proposal to break companies up that become too big to fail and Arnold Kling's suggestion that:

The reason you want small banks is that you want them to be bite-sized when they fail, so that someone else can take them over. But why should I take over a failed bank if the result is that next year the FTC is going to force me into divestiture because I’ve gotten too big?

See my thoughts here: Should Banks Be Allowed to Fail? Would love to get your take; please leave a comment.